Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Another Global Warming Myth Exposed



Add this one to growing list of errors and propaganda spewed by the IPCC. Globull Warming is dead. RIP

Deforestation 'not so important for climate change'

Climate negotiations were dealt a bombshell at the weekend when ecologists reported that carbon emissions from the destruction of tropical forests are probably only half previous estimates.

If we are emitting less carbon dioxide from deforestation that's got to be good news, surely. The trouble is the findings seriously question the only success so far of the UN negotiations on curbing climate change under way in Cancun, Mexico. If cutting down trees emits far less CO2 than we thought, where's the incentive to stop chopping?

This is a dismaying thought when negotiators feel they are close to a deal on compensating tropical countries for curbing deforestation.

Four years ago, the UN's Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change estimated that deforestation was responsible for up to 20 per cent of CO2 emissions. A more recent study by Richard Houghton of Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, revised that down to 15 per cent for the period 2000 to 2005. Both estimates relied on national declarations of forest loss made to the UN, coupled with simple estimates to convert that loss into carbon emissions.

But now ecologists at Winrock International, a respected US consultancy based in Arlington, Virginia, whose work was funded by the World Bank and the Norwegian government, says a more detailed analysis puts the figure for 2000 to 2005 at around 8 per cent, with a possible range between 5 and 12 per cent. Nancy Harris of Winrock said in Cancun that the estimate was "the lowest reported to date".

The analysis, which has yet to be formally published, used more than 3 million data points from a laser-radar satellite measurement technique known as lidar and 4000 carbon inventories from forest plots on the ground. Harris said it did not include forest regrowth after deforested land had been abandoned by farmers, which could reduce the figure further.

Brazil cuts

The statistics only cover the period to 2005, when a fault in the Landsat satellite restricted new data on forest cover. More recent figures could be even lower, since some countries such as Brazil are believed to have dramatically reduced their rates of deforestation.

But Harris estimates that up to 2005, Brazil's emissions, at 1.6 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, were four times that of the next nation, Indonesia – a much bigger difference that other studies have found. The third biggest source of deforestation emissions, she says, is Malaysia (mostly from its provinces on the island of Borneo), followed by Argentina, Burma and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Some forest scientists New Scientist spoke to questioned the idea that deforestation is not so important to climate change. They said that while the figures may accurately reflect deforestation by farmers, they may underestimate the carbon emissions from logging and the conversion of natural forests to plantations such as palm oil.

Under UN definitions palm oil can count as forest. The scientists believe this may be why Winrock's estimate of emissions in southeast Asia is so low.

Nonetheless, if the new figures accurately reflect the amount of carbon being emitted from changes in land use, then they do indeed threaten to undermine one of the few success stories in the climate negotiations – the talks on REDD, for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest degradation.

Global Warming Strikes Florida!!



Hat tip to the Sun Sentinel in south Florida. Its early December an its in the low teens in Chicago. Record cold now in Florida. Is it cold in Cancun?

South Floridians woke up Tuesday morning to temperatures hovering around the very low 40s that sometimes felt like the mid-30s because of the wind chill factor.

In Fort Lauderdale, a low temperature record of 42 degrees for Dec. 7 that had been in place for 169 years was broken, said Dan Gregoria, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

"It was at 7:24 a.m. when the temperature reached 40 degrees," Gregoria said.


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Clutching a steaming cup of coffee and rushing to her job at a downtown bank, Roxanne Moss, 48, said, "It's nice, it's a change, but I hope it doesn't last long."

Raul Urbina, 43, spends much of his workday outdoors, tending to the landscaping and maintenance of some Fort Lauderdale businesses, and finds exceedingly cold temperatures bothersome.

"I work outside every day," he said. "It makes everything more difficult."

Broward County officials declared a state of emergency because of the cold weather early Monday afternoon, while Palm Beach County activated its cold weather emergency shelter plan. Both actions prompted homeless shelters to open early to crowds seeking a warm place to sleep.

Agriculture businesses were also preparing for potential heavy damage to crops.

The arrival of a "modified Arctic air mass," or cold air from the north, was expected to lower temperatures to the mid- to upper 20s in the inner parts of Palm Beach County from 1 a.m. to 9 a.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, the weather service said. During the same period, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are forecast to reach the lower to mid-30s.

Early Tuesday, most agents with the Palm Beach County Cooperative Extension Service went into the fields to check on crops in the Glades and along the coast, according to agency Director Audrey Norman.

It's still too early to measure the impact of the frigid weather, Norman said. The agency will likely have a better idea Tuesday afternoon.

By late afternoon Monday, small crowds were already appearing at the front steps of shelters throughout Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Workers at the Salvation Army in Fort Lauderdale spent most of the day cooking burgers and rolling out mattresses. To keep from overcrowding, staffers planned to bus shelter-seekers to three different facilities, said Lilly Gallardo, the group's social service director.

Staffers were hoping this week's cold spell doesn't stay as long as a cold stretch last January and February that left shelters filled beyond capacity.

"Last year we had people sleeping in hallways," said Gallardo. "We'll be prepared regardless."

William Macer, who says he has been homeless for several months, was among those at the Salvation Army seeking shelter.

"I know there are many people who are going to suffer tonight," he said. "A lot of them are afraid to seek services."

Freezing temperatures also endanger millions of dollars of agricultural crops.

At Runway Growers in Dania Beach, owner Jamie Hayes spent Monday afternoon on his tractor spraying water and protective chemicals for his crops and plants. The grower lost about $500,000 in damaged crops in January.

"This is never good news," he said. "We are always going to expect some damage, but hopefully nothing like last winter."

Steve Bedner, of Bedner's Farm Fresh Market west of Boynton Beach, covered his small squash, cucumber and bean crops overnight, but expects his commercial pepper crop to survive the low temperatures.

"Normally, we wouldn't have this stuff growing this time of year, but we do grow a minimal amount for the market so everybody can have fresh produce," he said.

In Palm Beach County, helicopters were standing by to keep warm air circulating over crops if cold winds become a problem overnight, said Arthur Kirstein, of the county's Cooperative Extension Service.

"We feel like if we can get through tonight, then tomorrow we'll have similar conditions, but maybe with less wind," said John Hundley, of Hundley Farms east of Belle Glade.

Schools remained open Tuesday, and the Broward school district on Monday sent notices to parents encouraging students to wear warm clothes, such as caps and mittens.

In Fort Lauderdale, the coldest temperature for a Dec. 7 was recorded 169 years ago — at 42 degrees.

For Dec. 7, the record low for Palm Beach County is 36, set in 1937; Miami's record is 35, set in 1937. (Fort Lauderdale had a higher temp for a record because its sensor was closer to the coast, where the weather tends to stay slightly warmer.)

For Dec. 8, the record low for Palm Beach County is 43, set in 1937; Fort Lauderdale is 43, set in 1959; and Miami is 38, set in 1937.

The weather service also posted a fire alert — mainly for brush fires — from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday and Tuesday. The increased fire risk stems from the combination of warm daytime temperatures, low humidity and strong winds.

Global Warming Halted!!



An inconvenient truth from the Daily Mail in Great Britain. This was brought out at the CCC (Cancun Climate Conference). Don't hold your breath if you're waiting to see MSM coverage of this little nugget.

What happened to the 'warmest year on record': The truth is global warming has halted

By David Rose
Last updated at 4:17 PM on 5th December 2010

A year ago tomorrow, just before the opening of the UN Copenhagen world climate summit, the British Meteorological Office issued a confident prediction. The mean world temperature for 2010, it announced, 'is expected to be 14.58C, the warmest on record' - a deeply worrying 0.58C above the 19611990 average.

World temperatures, it went on, were locked inexorably into an everrising trend: 'Our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010-2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far - 1998.'

Met Office officials openly boasted that they hoped by their statements to persuade the Copenhagen gathering to impose new and stringent carbon emission limits - an ambition that was not to be met.

Drivers and pedestrians battle through blizzards in Kent last week

Winter's icy grip: Drivers and pedestrians battle through blizzards in Kent last week

Last week, halfway through yet another giant, 15,000delegate UN climate jamboree, being held this time in the tropical splendour of Cancun in Mexico, the Met Office was at it again.

Never mind that Britain, just as it was last winter and the winter before, was deep in the grip of a cold snap, which has seen some temperatures plummet to minus 20C, and that here 2010 has been the coolest year since 1996.

Globally, it insisted, 2010 was still on course to be the warmest or second warmest year since current records began.

But buried amid the details of those two Met Office statements 12 months apart lies a remarkable climbdown that has huge implications - not just for the Met Office, but for debate over climate change as a whole.

Read carefully with other official data, they conceal a truth that for some, to paraphrase former US VicePresident Al Gore, is really inconvenient: for the past 15 years, global warming has stopped.

This isn't meant to be happening. Climate science orthodoxy, as promulgated by bodies such as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), says that temperatures have risen and will continue to rise in step with increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, and make no mistake, with the rapid industrialisation of China and India, CO2 levels have kept on going up.

According to the IPCC and its computer models, without enormous emission cuts the world is set to get between two and six degrees warmer during the 21st Century, with catastrophic consequences.

Last week at Cancun, in an attempt to influence richer countries to agree to give £20billion immediately to poorer ones to offset the results of warming, the US-based International Food Policy Research Institute warned that global temperatures would be 6.5 degrees higher by 2100, leading to rocketing food prices and a decline in production.

A woman and girl sit under a tree on a bench in South Weald Park, Brentwood, Essex, this week

Grip of winter: A woman and girl sit under a tree on a bench in South Weald Park, Brentwood, Essex, this week

The maths isn't complicated. If the planet were going to be six degrees hotter by the century's end, it should be getting warmer by 0.6 degrees each decade; if two degrees, then by 0.2 degrees every ten years. Fortunately, it isn't.

Actually, with the exception of 1998 - a 'blip' year when temperatures spiked because of a strong 'El Nino' effect (the cyclical warming of the southern Pacific that affects weather around the world) - the data on the Met Office's and CRU's own websites show that global temperatures have been flat, not for ten, but for the past 15 years.

They go up a bit, then down a bit, but those small rises and falls amount to less than their measuring system's acknowledged margin of error. They have no statistical significance and reveal no evidence of any trend at all.

When the Met Office issued its December 2009 preThere-diction, it was clearly expecting an even bigger El Nino spike than happened in 1998 - one so big that it would have dragged up the decade's average.

But though it was still successfully trying to influence media headlines during Cancun last week by saying that 2010 might yet end up as the warmest year, the small print reveals the Met Office climbdown. Last year it predicted that the 2010 average would be 14.58C. Last week, this had been reduced to 14.52C.

That may not sound like much. But when one considers that by the Met Office's own account, the total rise in world temperatures since the 1850s has been less than 0.8 degrees, it is quite a big deal. Above all, it means the trend stays flat.

Meanwhile, according to an analysis yesterday by David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2010 had only two unusually warm months, March and April, when El Nino was at its peak.

The data from October to the end of the year suggests that when the final figure is computed, 2010 will not be the warmest year at all, but at most the third warmest, behind both 1998 and 2005.

There is no dispute that the world got a little warmer over some of the 20th Century. (Between 1940 and the early Seventies, temperatures actually fell.)

But little by little, the supposedly settled scientific ' consensus' that the temperature rise is unprecedented, that it is set to continue to disastrous levels, and that it is all the fault of human beings, is starting to fray.

Earlier this year, a paper by Michael Mann - for years a leading light in the IPCC, and the author of the infamous 'hockey stick graph' showing flat temperatures for 2,000 years until the recent dizzying increase - made an extraordinary admission: that, as his critics had always claimed, there had indeed been a ' medieval warm period' around 1000 AD, when the world may well have been hotter than it is now.

Other research is beginning to show that cyclical changes in water vapour - a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide - may account for much of the 20th Century warming.

Even Phil Jones, the CRU director at the centre of last year's 'Climategate' leaked email scandal, was forced to admit in a littlenoticed BBC online interview that there has been 'no statistically significant warming' since 1995.

One of those leaked emails, dated October 2009, was from Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the US government's National Centre for Atmospheric Research and the IPCC's lead author on climate change science in its monumental 2002 and 2007 reports.

He wrote: 'The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment, and it is a travesty that we can't.'

After the leak, Trenberth claimed he still believed the world was warming because of CO2, and that the 'travesty' was not the 'pause' but science's failure to explain it.

The question now emerging for climate scientists and policymakers alike is very simple. Just how long does a pause have to be before the thesis that the world is getting hotter because of human activity starts to collapse?



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1335798/Global-warming-halted-Thats-happened-warmest-year-record.html#ixzz17RD0hBJy